September RE Market Report
Clark County Housing Market Update
Brief Stall or Major Correction?
What we know so far is that the market is stalled and has been for about 3+ months. But the market’s future direction is still a mystery. The mixed results look something like this.
Buyer activity is currently down about 25% from 10 weeks ago but the last period of reporting, Sept 16, 2018, buyer activity rose just over 3%. So while buyer activity is down, it is not in a free-fall. After all, this is the start of school and we are nearly entering the holidays, so a slight decline is pretty normal. 25% is a bit high but short of a clear message of trouble.
Price reductions have been on the rise since March 2018. The number of price reductions from March to the end of August looks something like this: 540, 628, 941, 1070, 1234 and 1439. This is a steady trend and shows clearly we are in a market stall.
The Average Price of homes closed each month dropped just 1.5% from July to August. While this might seem alarming, it really is not that unusual to have brief price drops even during this long period of price growth. If this drop continues for another 2 months and other indicators turn southward, then I would be sounding the alarm of a more major problem, a telltale trend.
Marketing Time increased from 38 to 45 days. Again, like Average Price, this is not that unusual a change until it occurs for 3 months in a row and other indicators also turn southward.
Inventory levels for August remained unchanged from the prior month. Last month in my newsletter, I suggested that July inventory levels for homes above $500,000 are taking the biggest hit in terms of a drop in buyer activity and increases in inventory. The figures for August remain about the same so no real change here. If the market were in a major slowdown then I would expect to see the inventory level increases work their way down the price brackets. So far this is not happening to any significant extent although we still have a major slowdown for homes over $500,000.
Pending sales declined 2%. It is typical for pending sales to be on the decline this time of year however, for the last 4 months we have been trending consistently just a bit below last years pending numbers. This is yet another indication of a stall but not yet an indicator of what direction the market will go from here.
Conclusion: While we can safely say we are in a market stall, it is uncertain what direction the market will precede. I believe that politics are shaping our current real estate market conditions. Trade tariffs, a compromised president, controversial tax policies, budget challenges, an upcoming election delivering elevated emotions and lots of other political hot buttons that simply make people nervous. When folks are nervous, homes sales usually suffer. This suffering usually shows itself in the upper price ranges first and works its way down until the problem is resolved and people get comfortable again.
Thoughts on Our Health
Chinese medicine believes Qi (chee) is a critical part of good health. The Chinese have been using Qi for thousands of years to cure and yet American medicine does not even recognize it.
How can that be? How can the current greatest nation in the world that has been around on this planet for a mere 240+ years totally ignore Chinese medicinal techniques that have been around for over 2,000 years? At first glance this just seems like we are missing the boat, a big boat.
Hey, now wait a minute. I am not going to start sounding like I am an expert on Qi. That would be way out of line. I am just saying that if a civilization developed a practice of good medicine that was used successfully for thousands of years, perhaps it is worth looking into. Common sense seems to demand it. No?
It seems to me there are many practices that use Qi to some extent. I have a client I checked in with a few months ago that was practicing Tai Chi and he was having great success. It has become a big part of his life. Thanks David for sharing with me.
I have another client who practices Qigong who claims it has saved his life. He has been practicing Qigong for over 12 years. His story is beautiful.
My daughter-in-law is about to graduate with skills in acupuncture and my son has been doing Tai Chi and Qigong for many years and has lots of good things to say about it. Yes, there is the martial arts side of these practices and a healing side.
I recently developed a medical issue (I will spare you from the details) which modern medicine failed to cure without terrible side effects. I then turned to a healer who uses Qi. I enjoyed immediate results. I mean immediate, like the same day. He also uses Qi on himself to accelerate healing from injuries and illnesses.
I know Chinese medicine is becoming more and more popular in the United States but most of us are still unfamiliar with these options. If you are curious for more information, check out this brief video on Qi , I am happy to suggest some ideas that just might be of interest and help. More than likely I will refer you to someone that is much more knowledgeable than me.
Got Time For Coffee?
Helping with answers to your questions is what gets me up each morning. It is my purpose for being. If you have a question pertaining to real estate ( or chickens or composting for that matter) fire away. I am eager to help. And if you wish to meet for Coffee (or tea or lunch), let’s do it. Thank you
KELSEY FAMILY FARM: Harvest Farm Sale Oct 6-7.
Come out and partake in our harvest bounty!
There will be organic pumpkins, squash, tomatoes, beets, potatoes, Heritage apples, eggs, coffee, wool yarn, sheep fleeces, crafts, and arts, and lots more. Try some fresh squeezed cider and coffee. Check out our new pond and plantings and visit the sweet hens who bring you these beautiful eggs. Kids are welcome to visit with the goats, sheep and chickens.
Wanting to Pickle Cucumbers? I can get you fresh organically grown cucumbers and I can likely deliver it to you direct. Text in your order. 360-921-2203
Kelsey Family Farm is an ongoing concern created by Jonell Kelsey and supported daily by her sister, Jennifer Stone with occasional labor provided by Chris Kelsey.
Chris Kelsey has been helping folks with real estate for nearly 30 years. He is eager to put his experience to work on your behalf. When you call with questions or to meet, be comfortable that you will get honest answers free of any expectations or obligations. on your part.